What a post-Covid global economy will look like

From shared trauma to stocking up on gold, a look at the markets’ reaction to the ‘Black Swan’ event that is Covid-19 and what this means for the near future

Markets inevitably fall when events the magnitude of the Covid-19 pandemic occur. We can label this outbreak under the category of ‘unknown unknowns’ and, economically speaking, there is never a ‘good’ unknown unknown, because there is no basis for the market to respond. 

This means that the market cannot make a tight valuation of how it trades, or even where to trade, as the world’s markets are all suffering the same trauma. Oil dropped to historic lows in April as demand fears forced the prices into freefall. Yet gold, the traditional asset of the terrified, is on the up. 

The last great pandemic is out of living memory for all but the planet’s very oldest, having occurred almost exactly 100 years ago, in 1918. Since China announced its lockdown, shock has led to panic across the world. The result is that the markets can only come up with spurious evaluations as they trade because they have no precedent to go on and because no one is certain if they should be buying or selling, or at what price. 

This means that prices are currently fragile. It is this fragility that has translated into the crashing and zooming of prices currently taking place on the world stage. This increased volatility is actually a good thing for traders, but it is a bad thing for investors and is usually a precursor of even more grim things to come, because certainty is an asset and uncertainty is a constraining liability. 

Heading back to normality 

The global markets are all interlinked, and market prices represent the best estimates of what are essentially a group of highly motivated, informed, and intelligent fortune tellers. Once volatility levels start to come down (and they have done) we can start to breathe a little easier. This is a sign that things are starting to point back in the direction of normality. 

But the crash hasn’t been as deep as many had feared. There are essentially two types of market crash: a crash of 25%, and a crash of 40% or higher. The former – which we have seen, is likely to give everyone an uncomfortable ride for the next couple of years. A recession yes, but not a big depression. With a slump of 40% or more, we would have been looking at a bumpy ride for at least half a decade. 

By looking at how the market has reacted now, we can measure how the global economy will pan out over the next year. This is because the market, by nature, looks out over the course of the year ahead. So, what you see in today’s Dow and FTSE is likely to be similar to what you would see if you could peer into the future, in early 2021. 

Predicting the future

The theoretical physicist, Niels Bohr, once quipped: ‘prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.’

But by looking at how the markets reacted to the very worst, most uncertain and shocking unfolding of the pandemic, it is possible to plan accordingly. To know with a fair amount of certainty that, without some other global catastrophe, the direction the global market has already taken is predictive of the trend of the global economy for the coming year. 

The slump levels we have witnessed have not been a total surprise, because they were very high worldwide prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. Coupled with the fact that the central banks, including the Bank of England, have been totally nonplussed as to how to mitigate the situation. 

There are still likely to be bumps in the road on the way. Costly mistakes that could make the situation worse. But the good news is that, according to the current statistics, the markets should bounce back quickly from the present disruption Covid-19 is making. The market will move to drive the economy back quickly in order to appease or prevent a bad situation from becoming a chronic one. 

The Covid-19 pandemic can also be described as a ‘Black Swan’ event. A Black Swan is an event that no one could have predicted coming, but in hindsight, always seemed inevitable. In actual fact, the last pandemic was scarcely a decade ago when the H1N1 virus (also known as swine flu) killed tens of thousands across the world. We have also had two far deadlier coronaviruses than Covid-19 pop up in the last 20 years (SARS and MERS, with fatality rates of 10 and 32%, respectively). So emerging viruses, epidemics and even pandemics are more common than we would like to admit. The problem is, we have always been able to look the other way. Until now.

This pandemic – like the next market slump – was inevitable. But hopefully we can learn from Covid-19 how to react, prepare for, and mitigate the next virus outbreaks in the years to come. 

Richard Chamberlain works with Oakmount Partners, a UK-based investment consultancy firm.

Reaching the right audience: Business School communications part II

How Business Schools can use the high potential of social media platforms effectively, with examples of best practice, from London Business School EMBA graduate, Sarah Seedsman

An executive MBA graduate of London Business School’s prestigious Sloan Masters programme, Sarah Seedsman specialises in market research and marketing for Business Schools.

In the second of a two-part interview (the first part can be found here), the focus shifts in more detail to how Business Schools can use the high potential of social media platforms effectively, with examples of best practice. Seedsman also discusses the importance of ensuring approaches remain aligned with an individual institution’s goals and strategy.   

Can you offer some examples of how Business Schools have taken advantage of social media’s power to great effect?

We are seeing a lot of examples during this pandemic crisis. Social media comes into its own in terms of mobilising a School’s communities and allowing them to communicate. For example, INSEAD has set up a group on Facebook, Project Green Cross, to enable alumni to work with each other to support local communities through fundraising and finding ways of moving medical supplies and equipment.

In tracking how active Schools have been on social media over the last year, Imperial College Business School’s Dean has stood out for being really active, which has helped build a real sense of community. Now, the School is reaching out in the community to fundraise for new research which Imperial College is at the forefront of. They already had an engaged audience with which to do this though.

We are also seeing a lot of useful thought leadership, for example how to lead and manage people though a crisis is now popping up on all the different social media channels, including LinkedIn – of course, sometimes we should really think of LinkedIn as being a professional platform and not a social platform. 

In addition, there are campaigns where Schools have thought about the theme that they want to gather content around with a particular hashtag, for example ‘#whyIlovelbs’. Over a period of a couple of years they then have student and graduates, alumni and faculty post across different topics using photos, videos and comments with that common hashtag. This collated content becomes really good information for prospective students in terms of seeing what the community has said about the Business School.

Some deans have used LinkedIn effectively, which helps raise the brand profile of the School. It’s a very competitive market and deans can help build a community and keep a School’s alumni community around the world engaged. Media Minds tracks 100 deans on LinkedIn and top of the list for activity is Geoffrey Garrett, Dean at the Wharton School. He has almost half a million followers on LinkedIn and posts regularly. To put that in context, the Financial Times – an important publication to Business Schools because of its rankings – only achieved one million subscribers last year. Garrett already has access to an audience of half a million, so it is a very helpful channel for raising the School’s profile.

How can Business Schools spot fads on social media, how can they tell if it’s just a trend or if it’s here to stay?

The first thing we say to Business Schools is that they shouldn’t feel like they have to play with every shiny new toy. The important thing for Business Schools is to be quite considered in what’s going to work for their goals and strategy.

Start with the audience you want to reach and understand the best place to reach them with content they want and can engage with. Sometimes it’s a matter of being quite ruthless and quite focused. Keep an eye on data and analytics to see trends.

Instagram is just coming into its own for Business Schools, for example, and many Schools had been relatively slow in starting to use it. However, Instagram is now getting the highest inquisition of new followers. The platform doesn’t just need to be for photos, the Harvard Business Review’s Instagram account uses long posts and gets lots of engagement. Business Schools can still use this platform to promote their faculty’s thought leadership.

It’s a matter of having one eye on your audience and one eye on what you are trying to achieve and then making some decisions based on common sense.

How can Business Schools ensure that their thought leadership reaches its target audience?

Don’t spray and pray. Don’t put it everywhere and hope that people notice.

I think the key thing is to always use your website as a hub, to have everything there in the first place, so that you can keep linking back to it. In addition, many articles can enjoy a long life if you consider using different extracts from it. You won’t reach your entire audience the first time you put it out there, so share in different ways across your channels.

All social media platforms have an algorithm behind them, which chooses which groups see different things, so try and learn about these algorithms. Think about viral promotion and sharing, think about tagging people who it would be relevant to, or who have a large following. If you tag people, your post will be shown to their followership as well.

You should also never forget that it’s about relevance and impact. If your headline and your first line don’t grab the reader, then you won’t get the attention for your content that you want. So really spend time of polishing that first line and headline.

Are you a lover or a hater of social media in your personal life?

I grew up in an era of black and white television, before the internet and before mobile phones. I would say that I am neither a lover nor a hater but a curious observer. It fascinates me. I look at what’s possible and that fascinates me. I have a great curiosity for it, but I don’t use it as much personally as I am involved in it with work. It’s a great source of information for me but it’s not something that consumes all my waking hours outside work.

Sarah Seedsman is Executive Director for Engagement, Insights and Consulting at Media Minds Global

The emerging impact of AI in recruitment

How is AI already affecting the recruitment process, and what can we expect to see in the future? AI-oriented tech company, IPsoft, provides an overview.

What types of automation solutions are at the disposal of today’s recruitment teams? AI systems are already providing numerous options.

Traditionally, recruiters have often had to log into a system and manually identify the characteristics of ideal job candidates. With conversational AI, a recruiter can use natural language to ‘tell’ the system what type of candidate they are looking for, such as, ‘I’m looking for a compliance officer with at least five years of experience.’

Advanced AI systems can even generate relevant qualifying questions to further refine the search, such as those based on location or language proficiencies. Once the recruiter’s search has been created, the AI system will independently check through numerous candidate databases and job sites. As the system already knows the role requirements, only the most appropriate candidates are shared with the recruiter to take forward.

Augmenting effective recruitment from sift to interview

Talent acquisition is one of the key tasks for recruiters and one in which AI can play a transformative role, but there is no great need to change the way candidates apply for jobs. Ultimately, it’s augmenting the ability of recruiters to work effectively and build better relationships with prospective hires. Traditional recommendations for optimising CV and LinkedIn profiles to best highlight your skills and experience remain important – whether it’s an AI or human searching.

When it comes to the interview, AI software can also design interview questions that are personalised to the person’s professional competencies and experience. This approach helps both the candidate and recruiter. The candidate has the best opportunity to present and discuss their relevant experience and skills, helping the recruiter make better and more informed decisions. It can also help to reduce unconscious bias in questions, as the AI can be trained to disregard certain information and guide the recruiter away from questions that could have exposed a candidate to bias.

Between the search for great candidates, the time needed to conduct interviews, and the challenge of hiring top-tier employees, recruiting is very resource intensive. Many organisations – including Hilton and Unilever – already rely on AI to assist HR in the lengthy hiring process. From résumé screening to interviews, AI can help limit the time it takes to narrow down the pool of job seekers.

Stepping towards a hybrid workforce

Recruitment, and indeed HR as a whole, involves many routine tasks, making this an area of potential improvement through the use of AI-powered automation. From a business perspective, freeing up recruiters and HR professionals from high-volume – but not necessarily high-value – tasks, can allow them to address more complex individual needs across the business and apply their skills to other projects. This could include setting up a graduate training programme, building relationships with prospects, or researching and refreshing employee benefits schemes. Utilising AI in recruitment can help make these teams more productive, ultimately making jobs more interesting and rewarding.

In the long term, AI is going to fully automate tasks that human employees would rather not do, or simply do not have enough time to complete along with other, more important objectives. This is an important step towards the hybrid workforce, in which human and digital associates work alongside each other to help businesses scale faster with improved productivity and efficiency.

Covid-19 is becoming the accelerator for one of the greatest workplace transformations of our lifetime, with unprecedented changes in people’s day-to-day lives. What we are experiencing today could very well hasten this transition to a hybrid workforce and bring conversational AI into the workforce even sooner than anticipated.

Johan Toll is Executive Director of Transformations at IPsoft, a technology company focused on AI, cognitive and autonomic solutions.

Reaching the right audience: Business School communications part I

An executive MBA graduate of London Business School’s prestigious Sloan Masters programme, Sarah Seedsman specialises in market research and marketing for Business Schools.

In the first of a two-part interview (you can find part two here), Seedsman considers how the lines of communication between Business Schools and students have changed and how to get your global alumni network speaking one common language – the language of your Business School. 

What has been the biggest change in how students are communicating with Business Schools?

I think the biggest change now is that prospective students are roving across a large range of platforms to get information online.

They are looking to verify what they’ve heard about a Business School and what the official marketing is saying about a School. They move across social media channels and professional platforms such as LinkedIn, where they use the LinkedIn directory to look at alumni profiles and contact them. They also go to student review platforms. A Business School’s website is still a key site of reference and information, but what we’re seeing is an era of moving away from traditional brochures and forms of communication.

At the same time, the personal touch is still preferred in communications. GMAC did a survey last year that indicated how the majority of candidates still preferred email as their official channel of communication. So, some tried and tested methods still hold true.

How do you turn your alumni into active supporters of the Business School?

This has to start offline rather than online. Students who have a very good student experience have much higher levels of pride. There is that nexus of student experience to alumni. It then becomes about the engagement strategy to keep those feelings of pride and positivity strong.

Within that strategy it’s about what channels you use. It is also about using those channels to build a strong community and sense of belonging. That is where social platforms can serve you well when using alumni groups and enabling them to connect online.

If you just think of alumni as just a list of names, it will sound a little bit cold and more clinical. You create a community through advocacy and, in a community, people will do anything for people in need within that community, including the School itself.

Alumni relations teams who communicate with transparency and honesty in a frank but personal way, are going to be able to enrol that alumni engagement. This will come in handy post-Covid-19 when students might not want to study internationally. You want to get your alumni to talk to potential applicants and convince them that this School and this degree is the right choice.

Business Schools are inherently international. How do you ensure that your communications are relevant to a global audience?

This is about understanding your audience and the audience that you want to reach, and why.

Say, for example, if you wanted to raise your School’s brand profile as an institution with great supply chain management faculty research in it and were looking to reach an international audience.  You need to look for research which is relevant to international supply chain. If you are trying to talk to a global audience about supply chain management in one country only, that won’t work.

It’s thinking about the content and the audience and getting that match right. So many issues around business are global so should work for a global audience. If, for example, you have thought leadership on leadership itself, this will vary in different cultures because they will have different approaches to leadership based on their culture and/or political systems. As long as you contextualise what you are sharing, it can still be relevant to a wider audience.

You can target your presence online for certain regions or countries depending on the tools you are using. I think when you are talking to students and alumni, they become part of your community regardless of where they come from, or where they go and work. They speak the language of your Business School and a global Business language.

Is a Business School’s ranking more about its quality or its ability to tell good stories about their Business School?

I would almost say that rankings aren’t about either. There is much debate over whether rankings’ criteria show the quality of a Business School. There are certainly many good Schools that are not ranked.

Telling good stories is interesting because these can either supplement the rankings position you have ended up with if you are not as high up the rankings as you would like to be, or they can provide evidence about your qualities if you are not ranked. 

Prospective students use rankings as a tool and reference. They don’t just look at the ranking number. We are finding that they look deeply into the criteria and profile for lots of different Schools to get a wider picture of whether a School is the right match. This is where good stories and the evidence behind them come in – they show what the School’s strengths are and why they are a particularly good fit for an individual candidate.

Read part II of this two-part interview, which focuses on the use of social media.

Sarah Seedsman is Executive Director for Engagement, Insights and Consulting at Media Minds Global.

Being a woman leader: ‘man – I feel like a woman’

Being a woman leader: ‘man – I feel like a woman’

Screenshot 2020-04-17 at 09.40.48
Screenshot 2020-04-17 at 09.40.48

I went to university to study for my undergraduate degree in 1975, the same year in which the UK’s first Sex Discrimination Act was passed and the country’s Equality Opportunities Commission was established.

When I entered the world of business, I believed that ability, competence and hard work would get you where you wanted to go. I did not know what I wanted to do and was content that my own lack of direction might be a self-crafted obstacle. I did not believe my gender was going to be a problem. After all, we had an Act of Parliament to protect us against gender discrimination. What could possibly go wrong?

I’m sure I wasn’t conscious of it at that time, but looking back over my career I agree with Margaret Heffernan’s book, The Naked Truth, in which she says: ‘Being smart and working hard are entry-level requirements. But they won’t protect you from the weird experience of being a businesswoman in a world that remains dominated by men and their values. The companies we see today were built by men for men. Reluctantly, grudgingly, women were granted access – at first just to lowly positions but, when self-interest was served, to more powerful positions. We called this “progress”. But everything comes at a price. The price was that we had to behave in ways that men could be comfortable with: we mustn’t frighten them, threaten them, usurp them, or in any way disturb their universe.’

Maintaining perspective

As one reaches the top levels of management, these words remain true; perhaps even more so. Despite working in a seemingly more liberal non-corporate environment than most senior women, I still have the experience of walking into some meetings, dinners or board summits to find myself the only woman in the room. Or, if there are other women there, we are still a significant minority. 

‘Mansplaining’ remains rife. If you don’t know what this word means, Google the feminist author, Rebecca Solnit, who says, ‘men explain things to me, still. And no man has ever apologised for explaining, wrongly, things that I know and they don’t’. In the face of mansplaining, I find there is the risk that in sticking up for myself with evidence of greater knowledge, I will be seen as difficult, or boastful, rather than more experienced.

So what helps me persist? A sense of the absurd, a sense of perspective and a sense of humour are important qualities for any senior manager. I also have the blessing of a large family and the most unlikely feminist husband one could encounter who has been 100% supportive of me as a person, whether I want to be a mother, a rodeo rider or a vicar. He is my greatest critic and my greatest friend. 

I am very fortunate to have another life to fall back into when persisting seems too hard in a very male senior environment. This ‘other life’ has not only been a source of comfort for me, but also a rich source of leadership development. I have built the majority of my personal resilience through dealing with tragedies and challenges in my personal life. At an early age, I was forced into needed, but unexpected, leadership roles that later equipped me brilliantly, at a psychological level, with the mental strength required to be a dean. 

If I returned home stressed or moaning, my husband often asked: ‘Did anyone die, Vron?’ Of course, my answer was always ‘no’, to which he would reply, ‘well, it’s been a good day then’. Dear women readers – do not write off experiences in your personal spheres as tangential to your development and suitability for leadership.

Challenging bias

Leadership can be a lonely and exposed place for anyone, but it can be particularly so for those who find themselves in a minority. In addition, some of the pioneering women leaders of my generation have only succeeded, as Margaret Heffernan describes, by developing a Margaret Thatcher-like carapace as part of their leadership style, taking on extreme versions of the dominant male stereotype. This does not really tackle the problem and, even if women take on these extreme characteristics, they will still never gain entry to the ‘boys club’.

Instead, those of us who are even modestly senior must try to maintain a sense of our true self, use our positions to promote the cause of the next generation of women, and challenge bias (whether conscious or unconscious) when we see it. We also need to ensure that the new constellation of female stars have leadership development opportunities that enable them to achieve their full potential while maintaining an authenticity around their own set of values. 

I feel very strongly that, in 2020, we can, and should, expect our senior male colleagues to call out sexist behaviour not ‘for’ us but ‘with’ us. Men – don’t hide behind comforting words such as your ‘concern’ about the numbers of women in leadership roles. Do something about making those roles and teams healthy places for women to join.

I am hopeful that the paths taken by my five daughters and their friends will be easier than mine, and I want to support their career journeys so that they are increasingly able to develop organisations that have been created by men and women as places in which all genders can thrive. For me, ‘thriving’ would mean that my daughters and their partners could flourish in their workplaces without having to do daily combat with unconsciously held, but biased, expectations on how the two main sexes might contribute or should behave.

Veronica Hope Hailey is University Vice President for External Engagement at the University of Bath and the former Dean of the University of Bath School of Management.

Read more Business Impact articles related to women in business:

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Women hold 60 per cent of leadership roles at IU International University in Germany. Vice-rector of accreditation and study formats Regina Cordes explains how equal opportunities are embedded as a core organisational value

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Meritocracy, bias, and success: reward and recognition for diverse groups

Meritocracy, bias, and success: reward and recognition for diverse groups

Screenshot 2020-04-17 at 09.44.48
Screenshot 2020-04-17 at 09.44.48

I have been involved in diversity initiatives in the sciences for decades. During this time, there have been tremendous efforts in many areas, with particular improvements in policies relating to returning from maternity leave and flexible working. An Athena Swan initiative to celebrate the advancement of gender equality in higher education institutions has also put pressure on departments to consider carefully how all aspects of the work environment should be improved for gender equity.

But progression of women to the top academic ranks has remained stubbornly and depressingly low. In my home discipline of mathematics, the proportion of the professoriate who are women has increased in the UK from 6% in 2011 to 11% in 2016 – a large proportional increase, but overall, still nowhere near parity. 

In a recent conversation about gender diversity in UK universities, one colleague mentioned that, at her university, they had analysed how long it would take the institution to reach gender parity among the professoriate based on continuing with current practices. They discovered that due to having far fewer female academic applicants, a slower rate of female promotion, and greater female turnover, the answer was ‘never’. 

Surely, significant change is an imperative within higher education. Similar stories emerge from business, with the proportion of (white) women managers in US companies with more than 100 employees remaining constant at 29% since 2000, according to a 2016 Harvard Business Review article.

Within academia, promotion has traditionally been based on an individual’s ability to secure funding for, and publish, research. When we look at these factors, we see right away why women are still struggling to reach the highest levels at the same rate as men: they neither publish as much nor obtain research funding in the same quantities as male counterparts (according to an Elsevier report on research performance through the lens of gender, and analysis of data from the UK’s Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, respectively).  

On average, women simply don’t measure up in the standard metrics. Some of this is likely to be due to unequal burdens in areas other than research – an issue that universities can – and should – continue to address. But, even given equal research time, as a woman in science, it’s hard not to feel that the deck is stacked against you subtly in ways that individual universities cannot change. 

This is the frustrated mindset I found myself in a year ago when a colleague pointed me to the ‘No heroes’ blog by the London School of Economics philosopher, Liam Kofi Bright. The blog starts: ‘I am opposed to meritocracy,’ which, at first, was a shock to me. After all, surely meritocracy is the right system. But a few hours reading the papers cited there opened my eyes, and meritocracy has become my rant of the year.

Meritocracy

The term ‘meritocracy’ was coined by sociologist, Michael Young, in his satirical 1958 book, The Rise of the Meritocracy. In a 2001 column for the Guardian, he describes his horror at the current use of the word as a positive. He writes: ‘It is good sense to appoint individual people to jobs on their merit. It is the opposite when those who are judged to have merit of a particular kind harden into a new social class without room in it for others… It is hard indeed in a society that makes so much of merit to be judged as having none. No underclass has ever been left as morally naked as that.’

These ideas were taken up again in an article by the author, philosopher and former management consultant, Matthew Stewart, in a 2018 article for The Atlantic, which echoes Young’s ideas: ‘The meritocratic class has mastered the old trick of consolidating wealth and passing privilege along at the expense of other people’s children.’ 

Specifically, the problem with merit as a means of judging individuals is not in its generic usage, but rather when ‘merit’ becomes hardened into a particular set of criteria, the design and award of which are controlled by those who are deemed to already have it, and which are then used to limit inclusion in the new meritocracy.   

Bias

Both Young and Stewart are primarily concerned here with meritocracy as a means of reinforcing class division. But social class is not the only line along which privilege is divided, and reward systems focused on merit have been shown to convey benefit or disadvantage along the lines of gender and race.

In their groundbreaking 2010 paper, ‘The Paradox of Meritocracy in Organisations’, MIT Sloan Management Professor, Emilio Castilla, and Indiana University Sociology Professor, Stephen Bernard, investigated ‘whether gender and racial inequality persists in spite of management’s efforts to promote meritocracy or even because of such meritocratic efforts’. 

They carried out a study in which individuals in managerial positions were asked to make decisions about bonus pay for various employee profiles. They manipulated the gender of the employees in these profiles, as well as whether the company’s core values emphasised meritocracy in evaluations and compensation. They found that, when primed with ‘non-meritocratic’ company values, men and women were given equal bonuses, on average – $399.66 USD for men and $401.66 USD for women. However, when primed with ‘meritocratic’ company values, men were given an average bonus of $420.10 USD, compared to women’s $374.02 USD.  

Castilla and Bernard point to two possible explanations for this phenomenon. One is that, in contexts in which people are primed to believe that they are unbiased, fair or objective, studies have found that they are more likely to behave in biased ways. For instance, when individuals have been given the opportunity to disagree with sexist statements, and therefore establish their credentials as unbiased individuals, they are more likely, subsequently, to choose a male candidate over a female one.    

The second explanation relates to the idea that when people feel more objective, they become more confident that their beliefs are valid, as demonstrated in a 2007 paper co-authored by INSEAD’s Eric Luis Uhlmann
(then at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management) and Stanford GSB’s Geoffrey Cohen (then at the University of Colorado, Boulder).

Blind orchestra auditions and their effect on the proportions of women hired is a well-known example in work on bias and diversity (see box on page 32). Iris Bohnet from the Harvard Kennedy School has pointed out, in an interview for the Harvard Business Review, that moves towards blind auditions met with resistance from orchestra directors: ‘Note that this [change in proportion of women] didn’t result from changing mindsets. In fact, some of the most famous orchestra directors at the time were convinced that they didn’t need curtains because they, of all people, certainly focused on the quality of the music and not whether somebody looked the part. The evidence told a different story.’

Lauren Rivera, Professor at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management, has investigated another mechanism through which an emphasis on merit can in fact result in biased decisions, described in the 2015 book, Pedigree. In a study in which she observed discussions in a firm after the first round of interviews, she found that different demographic groups were subjected to greater scrutiny with regards to different aspects of merit. 

For example, the mathematical skills of women, together with those defined as ‘black’, were much more often questioned than those defined as ‘Indian’ or ‘white men’. Among candidates who made minor mistakes in mathematics, women were rejected for not having the right skills, while men were given a pass, with interviewers assuming they were having an ‘off’ day.  

The same effect is reflected in academia. In a 2017 study of publications in economics, University of Liverpool Lecturer, Erin Hengel, found that, in measures of readability, papers by women in economics journals score 1-6% better than those authored by men, and that the readability of papers by women increases over their careers, while that of those authored by men does not. 

Furthermore, by comparing pre-released versions of papers with published versions, she determined that peer review is directly responsible for about half of this difference. With the additional burden of scrutiny placed on women authors, their lower publication rate can be seen as a result of bias demonstrated by the ‘guardians’ of publishing – referees already among the subject elite – in their judgement of the merit of works submitted.

The success of groups

Recently, there has been considerable work on the benefits of diversity to the success of organisations. The 2015 McKinsey report, Diversity Matters, found that companies in the top quartile for gender diversity were 15% more likely than companies in the bottom quartile to have financial returns above the national median in their industry, and that companies in the top quartile for racial and ethnic diversity were 35% more likely. 

In academia, the majority of published work is collaborative, and studies have shown that in some areas, co-authored papers are more likely to be published in top journals and more likely to be cited. Interestingly, studies by Anita Wooley of Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business have shown that the success of groups is not very strongly correlated to individual measures of intelligence (which are correlated to individual success). Wooley and her colleagues found that group success was better predicted by such measures as social sensitivity, turn-taking and the proportion of women in the group.    

However, as is pointed out by the University of Arizona’s Justin Bruner (then at the Australian National University) and Cailin O’Connor, a Professor at the University of California, Irvine, in their 2015 paper, ‘Power, Bargaining and Collaboration’, although success comes from the work of groups, rewards for successful work, such as promotion and raises, accrue to individuals.Their paper demonstrated a model to show how the hierarchical structure of academia can, in particular, lead to the disadvantage of underrepresented groups in bargaining for the credit for group success. Indeed, most individuals viewed by society as exceptionally successful, such as Bill Gates, are seen this way in large part due to society crediting them with the success that is, in fact, the work of a large group. History is rife with examples of individuals, such as Rosalind Franklin (DNA) and Katherine Johnson (Apollo programme) whose critical contribution to group successes have been credited to others who were in a better social position to claim them.  

This suggests one way forward that addresses the difficulties we experience due to a focus on meritocracy (which generally focuses on individuals and on particular characteristics, such as educational success, which are known to be socially linked). That way is to work on developing reward and recognition systems for the diverse individuals that make up successful groups. 

This would involve broad awareness of everyone who contributes to a group and the formulation of reward and recognition systems that provide fairer access to credit for its less prestigious members. This is a difficult challenge, but one that promises both a more equitable treatment of all who contribute, and increased success through the ability to attract and retain more diverse teams to meet the complex challenges that modern society poses.

Eugenie Hunsicker is a data scientist at Loughborough University, where she is also the Director for Equality and Diversity in the School of Science.

She is involved with equality, diversity and inclusion work at a national level, as the Chair of the Women in Mathematics Committee of the London Mathematical Society, Deputy Chair of the Athena Forum and a member of the steering group of the Women in Data Science and Statistics special interest group at the Royal Statistical Society. 

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The business master’s degree: global application and enrolment outlook

Trends in application and enrolment figures for MBM programmes around the world as well as insight into the role of technology and India’s high demand. Will Dawes and Tim Banerjee Dhoul report

The biggest enrolment and cohort numbers for master’s in business management programmes (commonly known as MBMs, or MiMs) were found among Business Schools in Europe (excluding the UK) and India, according to data compiled for AMBA & BGA’s Application and Enrolment Report 2019. The data, which relates to the calendar year of 2018, also shows that India was a clear leader for application volume and competition for places when it comes to MBM programmes.

Applications to MBM programmes

India generated by far the largest number of applications for its MBM programmes (889,730) among the 55 AMBA-accredited Business Schools included in this new analysis for Business Impact. Together, these Schools offered a total of 174 MBM programmes in 2018. 

In India, the overall application volume equated to 98,859 applications per Business School and 42,368 applications per programme, and represented 83% of all applications to MBMs measured worldwide. The next highest proportion of applications was in Europe (excluding the UK). Applications to the region totalled 14% of the global figure, with findings equating to 7,419 applications per School and 2,248 applications per programme. The remaining MBM programmes made up just 3% of the overall application total.  


MBM enrolment in 2018

The majority of the 25,020 enrolments onto AMBA-accredited MBM programmes were in Europe (excluding the UK). There were 16,519 enrolments in the region, equating to 66% of the global total. India enrolled the second-highest number of students (3,945, or 16% of the global share). Meanwhile, Schools in the UK enrolled 2,759 students (11% of the global market of AMBA-accredited MBM programmes). There were much smaller shares of MBM enrolments in Latin America (4%), China (including Hong Kong, China) (1%) and Africa (1%). The regions of North America and the Caribbean, and Oceania, each comprised less than 1% of the global share of MBM enrolments (124 and 225, respectively).  

Programmes in Europe (excluding the UK) and India had the largest average cohort sizes (250 and 188 enrolees, respectively). Other regions had substantially smaller average programme sizes, the largest of which were in Oceania (75) and the UK (67). In descending order, the remaining regional average enrolees per programme were Latin America (50), Africa (43), China (including Hong Kong, China) (32) and North America and the Caribbean (12). 

MBM programme delivery 

MBM programmes offered by AMBA-accredited Schools in 2018 were typically delivered in a physical classroom setting (89% of all programmes), while 10% were conducted in a blended format and 1% were offered fully online. It should be noted that not all Schools in our sample provided data on the format of study, meaning that these statistics should be treated with a degree of caution. Nevertheless, the findings offer an indication that blended MBM programmes were more common among those on offer in North America and the Caribbean (70%) and in Europe (excluding the UK) (15%). In the remaining regions, all programmes were delivered exclusively in the classroom, other than in the UK, in which the equivalent figure was 98%.

Gender diversity on MBM programmes  

Overall, almost two fifths of applicants to MBM programmes in AMBA & BGA’s sample were women (37%), while more than three fifths were men (63%). Although there is some variation throughout the world, the global proportion of women who applied to an MBM programme was substantially skewed by the large number of Indian applicants overall. Women applying to programmes in India made up a third (34%) of all applicants in the country and had a large impact on the overall proportion of female applicants worldwide. Indeed, when India is excluded from the global figure, the average proportions of male and female applicants were equal (50% each). 

Looking at individual regions, India’s proportion of female applicants was the world’s lowest, and only Latin America (38%), Africa (47%) and Europe (excluding the UK) (49%) had a minority of female applicants for MBM programmes among AMBA-accredited Schools in 2018. There were more female than male applicants in the UK (53% of applicants were women), North America and the Caribbean (64%), China (including Hong Kong, China) (67%) and Oceania (69%).  

Globally, there was a slightly more equal split when looking at the gender balance of those who enrolled on MBM programmes in 2018 – 54% of those enrolling worldwide were men, and 46% were women. The proportion of women enrolling increases slightly, to 48%, when India is excluded from the global analysis. MBM programmes in India were again below the global average, with women making up 31% of those enrolling. In some other regions, female enrolees were in the majority. This included North America and the Caribbean (55%), Africa (58%) and China (including Hong Kong, China) (66%).

International and domestic
applications and enrolments

Applications from individuals based in the country in which an MBM programme was offered made up 95% of global MBM applications. However, this figure falls to 70% when excluding results from programmes in India, to which all applications came from domestic candidates. In addition to India, regions with large proportions of domestic applicants included Latin America (94%), North America and the Caribbean (88%), China (including Hong Kong, China) (88%), Europe (excluding the UK) (81%) and Africa (62%). In contrast, applications from overseas comprised the great majority in the UK (97%) and Oceania (86%). 

Seven in 10 (71%) enrolments were domestically based, a figure which drops to 67% when excluding India, in which all enrolments were from within the country. The balance between domestic and international enrolments followed a similar pattern to applications, albeit with some
small variances. China (including Hong Kong, China) and Africa had higher domestic enrolments than applications (88% and 62% of enrolments, respectively, were domestic).  Meanwhile, Oceania and Europe (excluding the UK) had a slightly higher proportion of international enrolments than applications (91% and 25%, respectively). 

A UK Business School leader who wished to remain anonymous commented that the influence of students from China is a significant factor in the overall demand for MBMs, and most notably in terms of the demand among international students. ‘There is certainly increased demand from China, which is probably due to the number of individuals wanting to get an overseas qualification.’ 

Survey sample and background to MBM analysis 

AMBA & BGA’s recently released Application and Enrolment Report 2019 outlines the current status of the AMBA-accredited MBA market. The report describes the growth in both MBA applications and enrolments at AMBA-accredited Business Schools, much of which was driven by increased demand in China (including Hong Kong, China). The study highlighted that, despite the geopolitical and economic pressures in the global economy, AMBA-accredited Business Schools are performing strongly. 

As part of the data compiled for the report, 55 AMBA-accredited Business Schools also provided data on a range of master’s in business management programmes (commonly known as MBMs, or MiMs). These generalist, post-graduate, and predominantly pre-experience, degrees are most often designed to provide a thorough grounding in the theoretical fundamentals of management, accompanied by substantial practical input. As such, it typically provides a foundation for individuals starting a career in management and has been identified as a particular area of interest for members of the Business Graduates Association (BGA), which aims to ensure graduates of all levels of business education commence their careers with a firm understanding and appreciation of the principles of responsible management, positive impact and lifelong learning.   

MBM programmes analysed in this report were delivered at Schools in the following locations: Europe (excluding the UK) (36%); the UK (25%); India (16%); China (including Hong Kong, China) (7%); North America and the Caribbean (5%); Latin America (4%); Oceania (4%); and Africa (2%). This is the first year in which AMBA & BGA has conducted a separate analysis of MBM programmes offered by AMBA-accredited Business Schools responding to its annual Application and Enrolment Report. In the future, we would like to track trends in this dataset over time and, where possible, incorporate the admissions experiences of BGA Schools. 

To learn more about AMBA & BGA’s research projects and to access recent reports, including the Application and Enrolment Report 2019, please visit: www.businessgraduatesassociation.com/about-us/research 

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